2024 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook « 2024 Hurricane Season - Track The Tropics (2025)

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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2024 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
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Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
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The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

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Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2024 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook « 2024 Hurricane Season - Track The Tropics (13)

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Sat, 12 Oct 2024 11:31:25 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 121131
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Active Systems:
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

    Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
    The circulation associated with an area of low pressure located a
    couple of hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands appears to
    have become slightly better defined this morning. However, the
    associated shower and thunderstorm activity is only marginally
    well-organized, and environmental conditions are expected to become
    less conducive for further development later today. A short-lived
    tropical depression could still form at any time today while the
    system moves generally westward. After that time, the system is
    forecast to continue moving westward across the central tropical
    Atlantic, but further development is not anticipated through at
    least the middle of next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Sat, 12 Oct 2024 10:31:08 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 121030
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat Oct 12 2024

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 31.3N 45.9W at 12/0900
    UTC or 1010 nm WSW of the Azores, moving NE at 21 kt. Estimated
    minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
    speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently
    estimated to be at 21 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
    convection is from 28N to 33N between 44W and 48W. A northeastward
    to eastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
    during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center
    of Leslie is expected to pass near or over the Azores late Sunday
    or Monday morning.

    Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at website
    - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
    Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
    www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Tropical Storm Leslie.

    Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1003 mb low pressure system
    (formerly Tropical Cyclone Milton) is centered near 29N60.5W,
    moving eastward at 15-20 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite
    pass depicted strong to gale-force winds north of 24N and between
    57W and 73W. The strongest winds are noted within 90 nm from the
    low. Peak seas are currently estimated to be in the range of 12-18
    ft due to west swell. Large swell from this system is over the
    western Atlantic, with seas greater than 12 ft present north of
    25N between 58W and 73W. Seas greater 8 ft or greater are present
    north of 21N and west of 55W. West of the low pressure center,
    including along the coasts of Florida and Atlantic exposures of
    the Bahamas, swell direction is primarily NE with a period of
    10-12 seconds. Life-threatening rip currents and powerful surf
    are likely along the southeastern United States coast and Bahamas
    over the next couple of days. Please refer to products from your
    local National Weather Service Office or local meteorological
    service for more information on coastal and near-shore hazards.
    The low is expected to continue moving generally eastward while
    slowly weakening over the next couple of days, passing south of
    Bermuda on Fri night.

    Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
    issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website -
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
    information on this western Atlantic Gale Warning.

    East Atlantic Disturbance near the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94): A
    1006 mb low pressure system is located near 17.5N28W. A tropical
    wave is along 28W, south of 22N, moving westward at 15 kt.
    Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 12N to 20N
    between 22W and 32W. Fresh to strong easterly winds and peak seas
    of 11 ft are occurring north of the low. If the circulation of the system
    becomes better defined and the showers and thunderstorms persist,
    the low could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm
    later this morning while it moves west-northwestward. Strong
    upper-level winds and dry air should end the chances of development
    by tonight or Sunday. Heavy rains and gusty winds are occurring
    over the western Cabo Verde Islands, and those conditions are
    expected to continue for a few more hours. The chance for formation
    through the next 48 hours is medium.

    Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
    by Meteo-France at website:
    https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
    information. Please also read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook
    issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 15N,
    moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is present
    with this wave at this time.

    A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W, south of 18N,
    moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across
    the southern half of the wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues
    westward to a 1006 mb low pres (AL94) near 17N28W and then to
    10N42W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 11N53W. Aside from
    the convection related to AL94 described above, no significant
    convection is noted al this time

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A weak ridge over the SE United States supports fresh to strong
    easterly winds in the eastern Gulf as confirmed by a recent
    scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft.
    Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
    elsewhere. Scattered showers are occurring in the eastern Gulf
    and Bay of Campeche, while generally dry conditions are noted in
    the remainder of the basin.

    For the forecast, fresh NE winds over the eastern Gulf and moderate N
    to NE swell over most of the basin will gradually diminish
    towards the morning hours. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight
    to moderate seas will persist today through the early part of
    next week. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into
    the northern Gulf Tue night, followed by fresh N to NE winds and
    building seas.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
    across the central Caribbean.

    The interaction between a surface trough W of 80W, the eastern
    Pacific monsoon trough and abundant tropical moisture sustain
    scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 19N and W of 80W.
    Scattered showers are also seen in the Windward Passage, related
    to the tail end of a frontal boundary that ends there. Elsewhere,
    drier conditions are prevalent. The weak pressure gradient across
    the basin sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the
    central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft.
    Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are present in
    the remainder of the Caribbean. However, a recent scatterometer
    satellite pass indicate that fresh to near gale-force northerly
    winds are occurring in associated with the strong storms in the SW
    Caribbean.

    For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will persist over the
    eastern Caribbean through early next week, with mostly gentle
    breezes and slight seas elsewhere.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please see the Special Features section for information on a
    western Atlantic Gale Warning, Tropical Storm Leslie in the
    north-central Atlantic and on a disturbance (AL94) in the far
    eastern Atlantic.

    Outside of the influence of all the systems in the Special
    Features section, high pressure dominates the waters west of 70W.
    The pressure gradient between this ridge and the remnants of
    Milton support moderate to fresh NE-E north of 24N and west of
    73W. Moderate to rough seas are found in these waters. Elsewhere,
    a broad subtropical ridge dominates, resulting in moderate or
    weaker winds and moderate seas.

    For the forecast W of 55W, the remnant low pressure of Milton is
    centered near 29N60.5W and is moving eastward at 15 to 20 kt. The
    low is supporting a broad area of strong to gale force winds and
    rough to very rough seas within 300 nm of the center. Associated
    large swell is spreading across the region north of 23N and east
    of the Bahamas. The gale conditions will dissipate early this
    morning as the weakening low pressure moves eastward. The swell
    generated by the low will persist west of it toward the Bahamas
    through tonight. Winds will diminish further through Sun. Gentle
    breezes and mostly 4 to 6 ft swell will prevail across the region
    into Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters
    off northeast Florida by the middle of next week, followed by
    fresh N winds and building seas.

    $$
    ERA

Active Tropical Systems

  • Sat, 12 Oct 2024 14:43:39 +0000: Remnants of Leslie Graphics - NHC Atlantic
    2024 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook « 2024 Hurricane Season - Track The Tropics (15)
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2024 14:43:39 GMT

    2024 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook « 2024 Hurricane Season - Track The Tropics (16)
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2024 15:22:36 GMT

  • Sat, 12 Oct 2024 14:42:27 +0000: Remnants of Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 41 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024
    000WTNT43 KNHC 121442TCDAT3 Remnants Of Leslie Discussion Number 41NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024 ASCAT-B data valid near 1300 UTC indicated that Leslie's fast forward motion has caused it to open into a trough. Therefore, this will be the last NHC advisory on Leslie. The ASCAT data indicated that winds of 40-45 kt are still present on the east side of Leslie's remnants, where it continues to produce limited deep convection. A mid-latitude frontal system is nearing the remnants of Leslie, and the two systems are expected to merge within the next 12 h or so, marking Leslie's full transition to a post-tropical cyclone. It is possible that Leslie will redevelop a closed circulation as a non-tropical low at that point. The cyclone is expected to turn eastward on Sunday, bringing it very near or over the Azores late Sunday and through early Monday. By Monday afternoon, Leslie's center is expected to become poorly defined again as it interacts with another weaker mid-latitude cyclone to the east of the Azores.Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 33.3N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...REMNANTS OF LESLIE 12H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$Forecaster D. Zelinsky 
  • Sat, 12 Oct 2024 14:41:27 +0000: Remnants of Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024
    000FONT13 KNHC 121441PWSAT3 REMNANTS OF LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF LESLIE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHENTHE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WEDPERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY 
  • Sat, 12 Oct 2024 14:40:57 +0000: Remnants of Leslie Public Advisory Number 41 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024
    000WTNT33 KNHC 121440TCPAT3 BULLETINRemnants Of Leslie Advisory Number 41NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024 ...LESLIE DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH......THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...33.3N 43.4WABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE AZORESMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Leslie were located nearlatitude 33.3 North, longitude 43.4 West. The remnants are movingquickly toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). A gradual turn toward the east at a fast forward speed is expected starting tonight, with a continued eastward motion expected into early next week. The remnants of Leslie are expected to move over or very near the Azores Sunday and early Monday. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Leslie has degenerated into a trough, but maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnants of Leslie are expected to gradually weaken during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------None. NEXT ADVISORY-------------This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$Forecaster D. Zelinsky 
  • Sat, 12 Oct 2024 14:40:57 +0000: Summary for Remnants of Leslie (AT3/AL132024) - NHC Atlantic
    ...LESLIE DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 the center of Leslie was located near 33.3, -43.4 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Sat, 12 Oct 2024 13:34:56 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     000 NOUS42 KNHC 121334 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0935 AM EDT SAT 12 OCTOBER 2024 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z OCTOBER 2024 TCPOD NUMBER.....24-134 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ KAL NNNN 

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Tue, 01 Oct 2024 11:55:51 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011155
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity this September was close to average in
    terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes that formed in
    the basin. Six named storms formed in September with three of
    them becoming hurricanes, and one of those becoming a major
    hurricane (Helene). Based on a 30-year climatology (1991-2020),
    between 4-5 named storms typically develop in September, with
    three of them becoming hurricanes, and one of those becoming a
    major hurricane.

    During the month, Hurricane Francine made landfall in southern
    Louisiana as a category 2 hurricane, and Helene made landfall as a
    category 4 hurricane along the coast of the Florida Big Bend.

    In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
    strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
    the basin so far in 2024 is about 80 percent of the long-term
    (1991-2020) mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
    National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2024&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ------------------------------------------------------------------
    TS Alberto 19-20 Jun 50*
    MH Beryl 28 Jun-9 Jul 165
    TS Chris 30 Jun-1 Jul 45*
    H Debby 3-9 Aug 80
    H Ernesto 12-20 Aug 100
    H Francine 9-12 Sep 100
    TS Gordon 11-17 Sep 45
    MH Helene 24-27 Sep 140
    H Isaac 26-30 Sep 105
    TS Joyce 27-30 Sep 50
    TS Kirk 29 Sep- 60

    ------------------------------------------------------------------

    Dates are based on Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

2024 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook « 2024 Hurricane Season - Track The Tropics (2025)
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