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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category | Wind Speed | Storm Surge |
mph | ft | |
5 | ≥157 | >18 |
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1 | 74–95 | 4–5 |
Additional Classifications | ||
Tropical Storm | 39–73 | 0–3 |
Tropical Depression | 0–38 | 0 |
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast
Hurricane Season 101
The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.
A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sat, 12 Oct 2024 11:31:25 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121131
TWOATTropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
The circulation associated with an area of low pressure located a
couple of hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands appears to
have become slightly better defined this morning. However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is only marginally
well-organized, and environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for further development later today. A short-lived
tropical depression could still form at any time today while the
system moves generally westward. After that time, the system is
forecast to continue moving westward across the central tropical
Atlantic, but further development is not anticipated through at
least the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sat, 12 Oct 2024 10:31:08 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 121030
TWDATTropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Oct 12 2024Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC....SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 31.3N 45.9W at 12/0900
UTC or 1010 nm WSW of the Azores, moving NE at 21 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently
estimated to be at 21 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection is from 28N to 33N between 44W and 48W. A northeastward
to eastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center
of Leslie is expected to pass near or over the Azores late Sunday
or Monday morning.Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Tropical Storm Leslie.Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1003 mb low pressure system
(formerly Tropical Cyclone Milton) is centered near 29N60.5W,
moving eastward at 15-20 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass depicted strong to gale-force winds north of 24N and between
57W and 73W. The strongest winds are noted within 90 nm from the
low. Peak seas are currently estimated to be in the range of 12-18
ft due to west swell. Large swell from this system is over the
western Atlantic, with seas greater than 12 ft present north of
25N between 58W and 73W. Seas greater 8 ft or greater are present
north of 21N and west of 55W. West of the low pressure center,
including along the coasts of Florida and Atlantic exposures of
the Bahamas, swell direction is primarily NE with a period of
10-12 seconds. Life-threatening rip currents and powerful surf
are likely along the southeastern United States coast and Bahamas
over the next couple of days. Please refer to products from your
local National Weather Service Office or local meteorological
service for more information on coastal and near-shore hazards.
The low is expected to continue moving generally eastward while
slowly weakening over the next couple of days, passing south of
Bermuda on Fri night.Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information on this western Atlantic Gale Warning.East Atlantic Disturbance near the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94): A
1006 mb low pressure system is located near 17.5N28W. A tropical
wave is along 28W, south of 22N, moving westward at 15 kt.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 12N to 20N
between 22W and 32W. Fresh to strong easterly winds and peak seas
of 11 ft are occurring north of the low. If the circulation of the system
becomes better defined and the showers and thunderstorms persist,
the low could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm
later this morning while it moves west-northwestward. Strong
upper-level winds and dry air should end the chances of development
by tonight or Sunday. Heavy rains and gusty winds are occurring
over the western Cabo Verde Islands, and those conditions are
expected to continue for a few more hours. The chance for formation
through the next 48 hours is medium.Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
information. Please also read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook
issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov....TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is present
with this wave at this time.A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across
the southern half of the wave....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues
westward to a 1006 mb low pres (AL94) near 17N28W and then to
10N42W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 11N53W. Aside from
the convection related to AL94 described above, no significant
convection is noted al this timeGULF OF MEXICO...
A weak ridge over the SE United States supports fresh to strong
easterly winds in the eastern Gulf as confirmed by a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere. Scattered showers are occurring in the eastern Gulf
and Bay of Campeche, while generally dry conditions are noted in
the remainder of the basin.For the forecast, fresh NE winds over the eastern Gulf and moderate N
to NE swell over most of the basin will gradually diminish
towards the morning hours. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight
to moderate seas will persist today through the early part of
next week. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into
the northern Gulf Tue night, followed by fresh N to NE winds and
building seas.CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the central Caribbean.The interaction between a surface trough W of 80W, the eastern
Pacific monsoon trough and abundant tropical moisture sustain
scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 19N and W of 80W.
Scattered showers are also seen in the Windward Passage, related
to the tail end of a frontal boundary that ends there. Elsewhere,
drier conditions are prevalent. The weak pressure gradient across
the basin sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the
central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft.
Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are present in
the remainder of the Caribbean. However, a recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that fresh to near gale-force northerly
winds are occurring in associated with the strong storms in the SW
Caribbean.For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will persist over the
eastern Caribbean through early next week, with mostly gentle
breezes and slight seas elsewhere.ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for information on a
western Atlantic Gale Warning, Tropical Storm Leslie in the
north-central Atlantic and on a disturbance (AL94) in the far
eastern Atlantic.Outside of the influence of all the systems in the Special
Features section, high pressure dominates the waters west of 70W.
The pressure gradient between this ridge and the remnants of
Milton support moderate to fresh NE-E north of 24N and west of
73W. Moderate to rough seas are found in these waters. Elsewhere,
a broad subtropical ridge dominates, resulting in moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas.For the forecast W of 55W, the remnant low pressure of Milton is
centered near 29N60.5W and is moving eastward at 15 to 20 kt. The
low is supporting a broad area of strong to gale force winds and
rough to very rough seas within 300 nm of the center. Associated
large swell is spreading across the region north of 23N and east
of the Bahamas. The gale conditions will dissipate early this
morning as the weakening low pressure moves eastward. The swell
generated by the low will persist west of it toward the Bahamas
through tonight. Winds will diminish further through Sun. Gentle
breezes and mostly 4 to 6 ft swell will prevail across the region
into Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the waters
off northeast Florida by the middle of next week, followed by
fresh N winds and building seas.$$
ERA
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 12 Oct 2024 14:43:39 +0000: Remnants of Leslie Graphics - NHC Atlantic
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2024 14:43:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2024 15:22:36 GMT - Sat, 12 Oct 2024 14:42:27 +0000: Remnants of Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 41 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024000WTNT43 KNHC 121442TCDAT3 Remnants Of Leslie Discussion Number 41NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024 ASCAT-B data valid near 1300 UTC indicated that Leslie's fast forward motion has caused it to open into a trough. Therefore, this will be the last NHC advisory on Leslie. The ASCAT data indicated that winds of 40-45 kt are still present on the east side of Leslie's remnants, where it continues to produce limited deep convection. A mid-latitude frontal system is nearing the remnants of Leslie, and the two systems are expected to merge within the next 12 h or so, marking Leslie's full transition to a post-tropical cyclone. It is possible that Leslie will redevelop a closed circulation as a non-tropical low at that point. The cyclone is expected to turn eastward on Sunday, bringing it very near or over the Azores late Sunday and through early Monday. By Monday afternoon, Leslie's center is expected to become poorly defined again as it interacts with another weaker mid-latitude cyclone to the east of the Azores.Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 33.3N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...REMNANTS OF LESLIE 12H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$Forecaster D. Zelinsky
- Sat, 12 Oct 2024 14:41:27 +0000: Remnants of Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024000FONT13 KNHC 121441PWSAT3 REMNANTS OF LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF LESLIE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHENTHE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WEDPERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
- Sat, 12 Oct 2024 14:40:57 +0000: Remnants of Leslie Public Advisory Number 41 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024000WTNT33 KNHC 121440TCPAT3 BULLETINRemnants Of Leslie Advisory Number 41NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024 ...LESLIE DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH......THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...33.3N 43.4WABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE AZORESMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Leslie were located nearlatitude 33.3 North, longitude 43.4 West. The remnants are movingquickly toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). A gradual turn toward the east at a fast forward speed is expected starting tonight, with a continued eastward motion expected into early next week. The remnants of Leslie are expected to move over or very near the Azores Sunday and early Monday. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Leslie has degenerated into a trough, but maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnants of Leslie are expected to gradually weaken during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------None. NEXT ADVISORY-------------This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$Forecaster D. Zelinsky
- Sat, 12 Oct 2024 14:40:57 +0000: Summary for Remnants of Leslie (AT3/AL132024) - NHC Atlantic
...LESLIE DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 the center of Leslie was located near 33.3, -43.4 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sat, 12 Oct 2024 13:34:56 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000 NOUS42 KNHC 121334 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0935 AM EDT SAT 12 OCTOBER 2024 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z OCTOBER 2024 TCPOD NUMBER.....24-134 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ KAL NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATSMarine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the BahamasThis is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov....GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains....CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic....SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:.GULF OF MEXICO...
None..CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWFNote: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.phpFor additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Tue, 01 Oct 2024 11:55:51 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011155
TWSATMonthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone activity this September was close to average in
terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes that formed in
the basin. Six named storms formed in September with three of
them becoming hurricanes, and one of those becoming a major
hurricane (Helene). Based on a 30-year climatology (1991-2020),
between 4-5 named storms typically develop in September, with
three of them becoming hurricanes, and one of those becoming a
major hurricane.During the month, Hurricane Francine made landfall in southern
Louisiana as a category 2 hurricane, and Helene made landfall as a
category 4 hurricane along the coast of the Florida Big Bend.In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
the basin so far in 2024 is about 80 percent of the long-term
(1991-2020) mean.Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2024&basin=atlSummary Table
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
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TS Alberto 19-20 Jun 50*
MH Beryl 28 Jun-9 Jul 165
TS Chris 30 Jun-1 Jul 45*
H Debby 3-9 Aug 80
H Ernesto 12-20 Aug 100
H Francine 9-12 Sep 100
TS Gordon 11-17 Sep 45
MH Helene 24-27 Sep 140
H Isaac 26-30 Sep 105
TS Joyce 27-30 Sep 50
TS Kirk 29 Sep- 60------------------------------------------------------------------
Dates are based on Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit